$789 Billion Just Doesn't Buy What it Used To

[The One Man Gang]

http://web.econ.ohio-state.edu/dupor/arra10_may11.pdf

Net jobs from the Porkulus: a DECLINE of 550,000 jobs.

"Our benchmark results suggest that the ARRA created/saved approximately 450 thousand state and local government jobs and destroyed/forestalled roughly one million private sector jobs. State and local government jobs were saved because ARRA funds were largely used to offset state revenue shortfalls and Medicaid increases rather than boost private sector employment. The majority of destroyed/forestalled jobs were in growth industries including health, education, professional and business services."

Woot.

[Flummoxed Lummox]

Bull

[Jeremy Roenick]

Bull 

Predictability... I give it 9 out of 10
Vocabulary...  I give it a 3 out of 10
Substance...  I give it a -4 out of 10
Total score...  2.5 out of 10

Conclusion...  Quit wasting electrons AV

[NCVol]

There is no really good estimate of the effect of ARRA.  The estimates range from a positive 3 million to this estimate, most of them in the 2 million range.  And they all have the same issue - we are in depression, so how do you estimate what jobs would have been without stimulus?  This estimate says spending the money DESTROYED jobs in the private sector, but doesn't even pretend to say how - "crowding out" is their only reason, although there were more jobs supposedly lost in the private sector than saved in government, so that's not it.  They say more research is needed. OK, but the results will depend on the model and we don't know which model to trust. 

The common sense result is handing out tax cuts of 250 billion and increasing spending by 500 billion did SOME good.  Republicans claim tax cuts are magic, so what is the difference between spending and tax cuts that one creates all those jobs - even though the Bush tax cuts didn't create any jobs at all - and another destroys them?

Any of you guys are welcome to give your own theory.  Mine is the effects are similar, with a slight preference to tax cuts, but only slight, given the results from the Clinton tax increases - gains of 22 million jobs - versus the Bush tax cuts - gains of 1 million jobs.  It's hard to conclude tax cuts are a silver bullet.     

[The One Man Gang]

These guys work for a major university (tOSU) which means they are probably far from "Tea Partiers" in their political leanings.  In fact, one theme of the paper is a continuous attempt to prove the Porkulus had done something - ANYTHING - other than throw nearly a $Trillion in a wild hog's a**. 

They couldn't do it and still maintain any academic credibility.

[NCVol]

No, they couldn't do it with their model, and they don't even try to explain their results - that the spending destroyed all those private sector jobs.  Because they didn't find the spending did NOTHING.  They found the spending DESTROYED jobs.  It makes no sense and they offered no coherent explanation for it. 

Their ONLY explanation was the "crowding out" effect, which means that gubment was sucking up all those private sector employees who otherwise would have gone to private companies.  It makes no sense.  Anyone anywhere know of a company that was having trouble finding employees for expansion during the crash, as we were losing 700,000 jobs per month?  And if they were having problems finding help, the place they went looking was the state and local government offices? 

The paper also referenced at least five other studies which show a positive jobs creation.  Which one do you believe?  Is there any reason this one is more accurate, other than it fits your political agenda?  If there is, what is it? 

[Flummoxed Lummox]

These guys work for a major university (tOSU) which means they are probably far from "Tea Partiers" in their political leanings.  In fact, one theme of the paper is a continuous attempt to prove the Porkulus had done something - ANYTHING - other than throw nearly a $Trillion in a wild hog's a**. 

They couldn't do it and still maintain any academic credibility.

Exactly. Higher education and the Tea Baggers is an oxymoron. For once, we agree D-FENS. 

[Just Win]

OMG,

It is over $1,000,000,000,000.00 (trillion) of debt when you factor in the up-front interest and the financing arrangement. BTW, to put this debt in a context that can be grasped a million seconds is 11.5 days; a billion seconds is 32 years; and a trillion seconds is 32,000 years. This sad chapter in our nation’s history is brought to you by our Keynesian Socialist that want government to be your cradle to grave provider and RINO GOPers that capitulate and test the political winds before taking their next breath. Wake up and smell the coffee man. The Fabians know what is best for you.  



Keynesian economics fails each time it is tried. However, it should get Barry some much needed votes come 2012. When you have a majority of the population receiving some sort of government aid, Socialism is a much more acceptable economic system.  The Stimulus has also created some rather impressive reelection slush funds for the liberal political victors of 2008. Of course these funds come at the expense of our posterity’s economic future. It appears the 20’s and 30’s look to be rather perilous economic times for our nation. When these Fabian Socialist that currently occupy the White House are long gone and out of office the economic destruction they have wrought will plague our nation for decades.






There is a reason why we saw no economic bump from the Obama/Pelosi/Reid Shovel Ready China-Debt Jobs Stimulus Bill passed by the last congress. The neo-Keynesian MIT model did not take into account the hemorrhaging of borrowed capital that flowed out of the USA back to China. Much of the $1,000,000,000,000.00 of borrowed money ended up in the Far East back in the hands of the ones making the loan after it first was passed through the bureaucratic intestines of the national government. You got to feed the union monster periodically. Bottom line,…we got a big null set in economic stimulus for mortgaging the economic future of generations of Americans not yet born (It is fascinating to watch the ultra left avoid the morality of sentencing Americans not yet born to the heavy yoke of monumental debt while at the same time accusing their opponents of being morally bereft for not voting to increase the nation’s debt limit). China was the big winner of economic stimulus from the passage of the Bill.




In the aftermath of this colossal economic blunder at the hands of the ultra left central planners in the White House, we now have undertaken the process of inflating our currency in order to monetize the debt (The idea is to pay back your debt masters with worthless dollars with the by-product of this destabilizing policy being hyperinflation and universal economic misery for all with no chance of economic growth for decades. That’s Keynesian economics for ya!). If you blow up the currency with dollar printing and create the insidious hyperinflation monster, you can pay back the massive debt back with worthless paper you just printed…enter one of the world’s most beautiful humans  Timmy Geither. Of course this necessarily creates all sorts of obscene economic misery for our nation. Misery such as worthless retirement investments due to induced hyperinflation destroying all equity paid for with a lifetime of blood sweat and tears (yet another moral discussion the left loves to avoid and does not want you to think about); higher fuel prices (our so called friends in the middle east and around the globe we buy petro from want more dollars for their petro since this administration purposefully inflated the currency); higher interest rates as no investor, domestic or foreign, in their sane mind wants to buy our debt. Therefore, you must increase the interest rate to keep investors interested; a continues decline in GDP; higher and higher unemployment numbers; a shifting of economic power away from the west to the east; and an economy that will continually start but suddenly stall as the signs of inflation appear. Economic and monetary volatility made to order friends. You now have front-loaded the US economy to fail at the first signs of any growth. YES WE CAN!!! We can destroy the economy.




Sec. of the Treasury Mr. Timmy Geithner, voted by People magazine as one of the
most beautiful people on the planet, listens as President Obama  unveils yet
another governmental spending program to jump start the economy. Geithner failed
to file his Federal tax returns for five consecutive years saying his employer at the time,
The World Bank, informed him he was not required to pay taxes and the Turbo Tax
software he was using contained errors indicating his income was tax free.

I don’t want to add misery to misery in this discussion but we have not even considered the awful devastation Obamacare is set to inflict upon our prosperity as a nation. I am a realistic optimist. Things look bleak. In a little over two years this ultra left bunch has set up a def-com 4 scenario for our economy and destroyed our currency in the process by creating fertile ground for hyperinflation to grow. If you are a working man the deck is certainly stacked against you. What we are experiencing is the economic harvest Saul Alinsky dreamed of and Robert Bork so adroitly warned us about so many years ago when he coined the phrase “slouching towards Gomorrah.”

Economic growth braked sharply in the first quarter as higher food and gasoline prices dampened consumer spending and sent inflation rising at its fastest pace in 2-1/2 years.

Another report on Thursday showed a surprise jump in the number of Americans claiming unemployment benefits last week, which could cast a shadow on expectations for a significant pick-up in output in the second quarter.

Growth in gross domestic product slowed to a 1.8 percent annual rate after a 3.1 percent fourth-quarter pace, the Commerce Department said. Economists had expected a 2 percent pace.

With much of the pull back traced back to sharp cuts in defense spending and harsh winter weather, analysts were hopeful the economy would regain speed in the second quarter. The drop in defense spending was seen as temporary.

"Growth was disappointing given the momentum of the economy heading into the year. We are still of the belief that the economy will improve out of the soft patch through this quarter into the second half of the year," said Brian Levitt, an economist at OppenheimerFunds in New York.

Economists were encouraged that details of the report, in particular consumer spending and business outlays on software and equipment, were not as weak as they had feared and said this suggested a foundation for stronger growth was in place.

Consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity.

LABOR MARKET WEAKNESS?

While a 25,000 rise in claims for state jobless benefits to 429,000 last week hinted at some weakening in the labor market, analysts cautioned against reading too much into gain. They said severe weather in some parts of the country and the Easter holiday could have distorted the figure.

Still, the data suggested improvements in the labor market were still only coming grudgingly.

"The underlying downtrend in initial claims that had been in place since late last year has flattened out," said Omair Sharif, an economist at RBS in Stamford, Connecticut. But he added: "It seems a little too early to suggest that the underlying pace of layoffs has picked up."

Hiring accelerated in March and a report next week is expected to show job creation remained relatively robust in April.

MODERATE PACE

Prices for U.S. government debt rose after the data, while stocks edged lower. The weak GDP report and the Federal Reserve's stated commitment to a loose monetary policy stance after a two-day meeting on Wednesday kept the dollar near a three-year low against a basket of currencies.

The Fed on Wednesday trimmed its growth estimate for 2011 to between 3.1 and 3.3 percent from a 3.4 to 3.9 percent January projection.

Some economists felt the U.S. central bank's estimates might be a little optimistic, given the poor start to the year even though most agreed growth would soon strengthen.

Optimism the economy would find a firmer footing in the second quarter was bolstered by a report showing pending sales of previously owned homes rose 5.1 percent in March. Housing is struggling to recover and is one of the headwinds facing the economy.

Growth in the first quarter was curtailed by a sharp pull back in consumer spending, which expanded at a rate of 2.7 percent after a strong 4 percent rise in the fourth quarter.

Rising commodity prices meant consumers had less money to spend on other items. Gasoline prices remain a concern, even though they are expected to stabilize somewhat.

INFLATION RISING

The GDP report underscored the pain that strong food and gasoline prices are inflicting on households.

A inflation gauge contained in the report rose at a 3.8 percent rate -- the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2008 -- after increasing 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter.

A core price gauge, which excludes food and energy costs, accelerated to a 1.5 percent rate -- the fastest since the fourth quarter of 2009 -- from 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter. The core gauge is closely watched by Fed officials, who would like to see it closer to 2 percent.

In the first quarter, restocking by businesses picked up, with inventories increasing $43.8 billion after a $16.2 billion rise in the fourth quarter. However, the buildup was less than economists had expected and some said they looked for further inventory building to bolster growth in the second quarter.

Inventories added 0.93 percentage point to first-quarter GDP growth. Excluding inventories, the economy grew at a pedestrian 0.8 percent pace after a brisk 6.7 percent rate in the fourth quarter.

Business spending on equipment and software gained pace, but government spending suffered its deepest contraction since the fourth quarter of 1983.

Home building made no contribution, while investment in nonresidential structures dropped at its quickest pace since the fourth quarter of 2009, likely the result of bad weather.

  

[Just Win]

No, they couldn't do it with their model, and they don't even try to explain their results - that the spending destroyed all those private sector jobs.  Because they didn't find the spending did NOTHING.  They found the spending DESTROYED jobs.  It makes no sense and they offered no coherent explanation for it.  

Their ONLY explanation was the "crowding out" effect, which means that gubment was sucking up all those private sector employees who otherwise would have gone to private companies.  It makes no sense.  Anyone anywhere know of a company that was having trouble finding employees for expansion during the crash, as we were losing 700,000 jobs per month?  And if they were having problems finding help, the place they went looking was the state and local government offices?  

The paper also referenced at least five other studies which show a positive jobs creation.  Which one do you believe?  Is there any reason this one is more accurate, other than it fits your political agenda?  If there is, what is it?  

Speaking of models, how is that Keynesian MIT model working out with the Shoveled China-Debt Jobs Stimulus Bill Obama, Pelosi, and Reid passed last congress? Did it work? Is unemployment under 8% as promised? Many questions with many negative answers. Perhaps you can join the dominant liberal media industrial complex and give us som Obama ecnomic "Happy Talk." Make me happy that I paid $4.25/gallon down on Mt. Paran road while in north Atlanta last weekend. Or perhaps you can produce an inane graph or chart that purports to show all is well and getting better with all the massive Obama debt.

[Just Win]

Notice how the extreme left cannot offer a rejoinder to the lead post of this thread with any efficacy. The best they can do is offer the typical inane and immature ad hoinem bluster. You  simply cannot come up with a big enough talking point lie to shuck this reality off. Where is the promised economic stimulus??? Where are the promised jobs that will keep unemployment under an astromical 8%??? Where is the promised economic prosperity that has put a heavy yoke of debt upon generations of Americans not even born??? So many questions and so few extreme left answers.





U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, (L) is being lectured to by Chinese Premier
Wen Jiabao (R) at the Zhongnanhai in Beijing, China regarding Chinese concerns the
United States will be unable to meet future debt service obligations owed to them.





Main Points of the FreedomWorks Contract From American

1. Protect the Constitution

2. Reject Cap & Trade

3. Demand a Balanced Budget

4.Enact Fundamental Tax Reform

5. Restore Fiscal Responsibility & Constitutionally Limited Government

6. End Runaway Government Spending

7. Defund, Repeal, & Replace Government-run Health Care

8. Pass an ‘All-of-the-Above” Energy Policy

9. Stop the Pork

10. Stop the Tax Hikes

[Just Win]

Where are the promised stimulus jobs?

Unemployment Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Increased to 424,000 Last Week
By Timothy R. Homan - May 26, 2011 More Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, a sign the labor market is struggling to gain momentum.

Jobless claims increased by 10,000 to 424,000 in the week ended May 21, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg News survey called for a drop to 404,000. The economy grew less than forecast in the first quarter, a separate report showed.

Consistent gains in hiring are needed to sustain consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the world’s largest economy. Federal Reserve officials said the jobless rate “remains elevated” at 9 percent, one reason central bankers pledged last month to complete their asset-purchase plan by the end of June and keep borrowing costs near zero.

“Claims are still unfortunately seeing some upward pressure from state and local government job cuts,” said Russell Price, a senior economist at Ameriprise Financial Inc. in Detroit. The first-quarter growth figures show “a modest soft patch to the recovery,” he said.

Estimates in the Bloomberg survey of 47 economists ranged from 390,000 to 420,000. The Labor Department revised the prior week’s figure up to 414,000 from the 409,000 initially reported. There were no special factors behind last week’s increase, a Labor Department official said as the figures were released.

First Quarter
The U.S. economy, the world’s largest, expanded at a 1.8 percent annual rate in the first three months of this year, Commerce Department figures showed in Washington. The revised rise in gross domestic product was the same as estimated last month and compared with a 3.1 percent gain in the prior quarter. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 2.2 percent increase.

Stock-index futures trimmed gains after the reports. The contract on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index expiring in June rose less than 0.1 percent to 1,317.7 at 8:51 a.m. in New York. Treasuries rose, pushing down the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.12 percent from 3.13 percent late yesterday.

The four-week moving average, a less volatile measure than the weekly figures, fell to 438,500 last week from 440,250.

The number of people continuing to receive jobless benefits dropped by 46,000 in the week ended May 14 to 3.69 million, the lowest in a month.

The continuing claims figure does not include the number of Americans receiving extended benefits under federal programs.

Extended Benefits
Those who’ve used up their traditional benefits and are now collecting emergency and extended payments decreased by about 63,215 to 4.05 million in the week ended May 7.

The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits, which tends to track the jobless rate, fell to 2.9 percent in the week ended May 14 from 3 percent.

Forty states and territories reported a decrease in claims, while 13 reported an increase. These data are reported with a one-week lag.

Initial jobless claims reflect weekly firings and tend to fall as job growth -- measured by the monthly payrolls report -- accelerates.

Some companies are already making plans to expand payrolls further in 2012. General Motors Co. (GM) said this week it will invest $69 million and add 2,500 jobs to start making new models at the Detroit plant that builds the Chevrolet Volt plug-in hybrid as the automaker boosts U.S. production.

April Employment
Employment expanded last month by the most since May 2010, even as the jobless rate climbed to 9 percent, Labor Department data showed. Labor market conditions had “continued to improve, albeit gradually,” Fed officials said in minutes of their April 26-27 meeting released last week.

At the same time, “the unemployment rate remains elevated,” central bankers said.

[NCVol]

It's all so surprising.  Hollow out the productive economy with free trade, which means offshoring American jobs to developing world hellholes, go three DECADES without an increase in wages for the middle class, send all the gains in the economy to a tiny sliver at the top, and then fuel "growth" by making it easier for average workers to get themselves in a debt hole they'll never climb out of, complete with the biggest debt and housing bubble in history, and after all this there is no recovery!!  Shocked, shocked I tell you.

The GOP could make a good argument against the current state of the economy, and they'd do the country and their party a world of good by proposing fundamental changes to it.  Only problem is the "conservatives" and "neoliberals" (aka conservative democrats) LOVE the current arrangement, because, as they tell us, kill a few middle class jobs in America, gain a few more in China = WIN!!!!! 

That plus the fact income for the plutocrats hasn't ever been higher, and what, really, is there to complain about.